@Article{TavaresGoNoReChLy:2023:WaBaCo,
               author = "Tavares, Priscila da Silva and Gotuzzo, Ricardo Acosta and Nobre, 
                         Paulo and Resende, Nicole Costa and Chou, Sin Chan and Lyra, 
                         Andr{\'e} de Arruda",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Georg-August-Universit{\"a}t 
                         G{\"o}ttingen} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Water balance components and climate extremes over Brazil under 
                         1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of global warming scenarios",
              journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
                 year = "2023",
               volume = "23",
               number = "1",
                pages = "e40",
                month = "Mar.",
             keywords = "Climate projections, CMIP5, Eta model, Hydrological regions of 
                         Brazil.",
             abstract = "This work aimed to evaluate changes in water balance components 
                         (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water availability) and 
                         precipitation extremes projected under global warming levels 
                         (GWLs) of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, in Brazil. An ensemble of eight 
                         twenty-first-century projections with the Eta Regional Climate 
                         Model and their driving Global Climate Models (CanESM2, 
                         HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and BESM) were used. Projections of two 
                         Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 
                         considered intermediate and high concentration, respectively, were 
                         used. The results indicate that the RCP8.5 scenario under 2 °C GWL 
                         is likely to have a higher impact on the water balance components, 
                         amplifying trends in drier conditions and increasing the number of 
                         consecutive dry days in some regions of Brazil, particularly in 
                         the North and Northeast regions. On the other hand, the 
                         projections indicate the opposite sign for the South region, with 
                         trends toward wetter conditions and significant increases in 
                         extreme rainfall. The 0.5 °C difference between the GWLs 
                         contributes to intensifying reductions (increases) from 4 to 7% in 
                         water availability, mainly in the North-Northeast (South) regions. 
                         The projected changes could have serious consequences, such as 
                         increases in the number of drought events in hydrographic regions 
                         of the Northeast region of Brazil and increases in flood events in 
                         the South of the country. The results here presented can 
                         contribute to the formulation of adaptive planning strategies 
                         aimed at ensuring Brazils water security towards climate change.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10113-023-02042-1",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02042-1",
                 issn = "1436-3798 and 1436-378X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Water balance components and climate extremes over Brazil under 
                         1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of global warming scenarios.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "20 maio 2024"
}